Monday, June 30, 2008
Should Astros fans be cheering for losses?
If you wonder if I'm suggesting whether or not you should be cheering against your home town team, my response is that I will leave that for you to decide. But what I am saying is that I think that there might be good reasons to cheer against your home town club for the next two or three weeks.
In making this case, I operate under several key assumptions. First, no matter what happens for the remainder of the season, the Astros will not win the World Series. It would take a miracle for the Astros to win the Wild Card, and even if they did, I can fathom almost no possible scenario where the Astros beat teams like the Phillies or Cubs, much less the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, or Yankees in the playoffs. It just isn't going to happen. The Astros don't have the arms to compete with those teams, and in the post season, pitching is what wins games. If you need evidence that pitching is what counts, remember that the Astros' '04 and '05 playoff runs were fueled by phenomenal pitching staffs and also remember that the '05 run occurred in spite of a generally anemic offense. Don't let the Astros recent success against the Red Sox and Rays fool you, both of those pitching staffs win out 90% of the time in a seven game playoff series against the Astros.
My second key assumption is an offshoot of the first: not only will the Astros not win the World Series, but the chances that they will make the playoffs are slim to none. Currently, the Astros trail the first place Cubs by 10 full games, and trail the Cardinals and Brewers by 7.5 and 5.5 games respectively. The Astros have almost no chance of catching the Cubs, and their catching the Cards and Brewers seem comparably slim. I also see the Mets, Marlins, and Braves all playing better baseball in the second half of the season so even if the Cards and Brewers were to faulter, it is likely that the Astros would face competition from one of, if not all of those teams for the Wild Card.
All of this information is relevant because if the Astros are still within double digits of the Wild Card at about the two week mark after the All Star break, there is no way that the Astros trade off any assets and start building for the future. Drayton has seen his team get hot in the second half too many times, and he is a bit too nieve to consider selling Roy or Jose Valverde with a team "in the race" (although 7 1/2 games hardly strikes me as in the thick of the race). Drayton very may well be right that the Astros could make some sort of run, but any sort of run will likely fall short of the needed number to win the Wild Card. More likely is the Astros end the year around .500.
Frankly, if we are going to finish at .500 with the players we have, I would assume see if we can land some prospects in return for Valverde (or if we get a fantastic offer, even Oswalt)and infuse the organization with some young hotshots so that the team might be a good team in two years. Seriously, if given the choice between being an around .500 team for the next three years or finishing 20 games under .500 for this and next season but then being a legitimate contender for the NL central the five years after that (which is what could happen if the Astros landed a couple of stud prospects in return for Valverde or Oswalt), which would you choose?
I'm not saying that you should cheer against the Astros to have a bad three week so that they start to build for next year, that's your decision. But whether it's in the Astros' long term best interest to be crappy for the next three weeks is a question worth thinking about.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
All Publicity is Good Publicity? Not so much.
Grow Up, Ed
For
The Astros were right to cut Chacon, but there should be consequences for Wade as well. I don’t know what they should be, but Wade acted like a fool by not being the mature one (which is his job) and as a result the franchise has been made the laughing stock of baseball. Grow up, Ed.
Rockets
If you look at the history of the NBA draft, you quickly realize that the success rate for draft picks, even at the very top of the draft, is remarkably low. As a result, it would be a mistake to get overly excited about the Rockets’ selection of Dante Greene and Joey Dorsey. I personally doubt that Dante Greene will ever turn into much of a player, but I suppose I could be wrong and given where the Rockets selected him I feel like they got pretty good value since you really won’t find many guys with as much potential as Greene that late in the draft. Along the same lines, I was very pleased to see the Rockets pick up Dorsey, particularly at 33. Dorsey is undersized (only 6’7’’) but the kid is beast on the defensive end. At today’s press conference, Dorsey (who is pretty damn funny) likened himself as “Ray Lewis with a basketball.” I like where his head is at so long as he never finds himself arraigned on first degree murder charges. Even if Dorsey ends up being below average (although if he tries I think he should be a decent role player in the league for a while), his presence should bring an end to people messing with
All of that said, if you are going to take anything away from last nights draft, it should be that the Rockets have themselves a quality general manager in Daryl Moray. Moray turned the 25th pick overall (Nicolas Batum of
June 20, 2008: Break It Down, Uncle Drayton
At the beginning of the season, I wrote that I didn’t think that the Astros would be a very good ballclub. I was hardly the only one making this prediction.
But then the Astros went on a tear and actually ran their record all the way to eight games over the .500 mark at one point. At one point (and it really wasn’t that long ago) the ‘Stros were within two games of the first place Chicago Cubs. Somewhere along the way, the
Granted, this particular stretch of losses has been especially awful, even for the Astros, but during the winning streak did we all not expect the Astros to come back to earth? If not, we certainly should have. To use the words of the great Denny Green, the Astros “are what we thought they were.” The Astros success was a statistical anomaly which, over a long period of time, naturally corrected itself. The Astros are an average, about .500 ballclub and by the end of the season, I suspect that is exactly where they will find themselves.
Now that the Astros deficit in the Central has reached double digits, I think it’s time for the decision makers within the Astros organization (so general manager Ed Wade and Uncle Drayton) to take a good hard look at the product they are putting on the field. An objective look at the organization will reveal a terribly depleted farm system along with a baseball squad with no pitching. Brandon Backe might be a great guy, but he is not a very good pitcher, and the rest of the staff with the case of Wandy and
These problems are fairly easy to diagnose, but curing them will be far more difficult. The fans will urge Drayton to spend more money on free agents, particularly arms, but he should resist this urge. The free agent pitching market these days is full of overpriced average pitchers and not a lot of good deals. Teams generally don’t let their aces get away, and on the rare occasion that an ace actually does become available, the Yankees or Red Sox snatch them up. Creating a solid pitching staff must be done from the ground up. To create a good, championship caliber pitching staff (and that should be the goal) the Astros need to stock the minor leagues with quality young arms and they need to develop them. Since the Astros have drafted horribly, this won’t be easy. But the organization needs to start repeating the minor league system right now, and that means putting Roy Oswalt on the trading block. If the Astros play it right, I truly believe that Roy O, even pitching as poorly as he has this season, commands a king’s ransom of prospects. Valverede might also command a few solid prospects if the market is right. If the right offers present themselves, the Astros must pull the trigger and sell, even if the product suffers in the short term. The time has come to break it down. It will be painful because doing so will mean that the Astros won’t be very good for a while, but frankly, the goal should not to be to make the playoffs but to win championships. Through free agency, the ‘Stros might be able to put some band-aids on these problems and put a decent product on the field for the next couple of seasons but as a fan, I would far rather suffer a few bad seasons to create a real, viable contender than continue going down this road of mediocrity. Break it down and rebuild it, Uncle Drayton.
June 10, 2008: You Can't Fix Stupid
June 10: You can’t fix stupid
One of the great things about sports is how stupid the athletes that play them often are. Two days ago, Cedric Benson was pulled over in Austin and charged with DUI. Since earlier in the month Ced also picked up a “boating while intoxicated” charge, the Bears cut the starting running back and former fourth overall pick.
In both cases, Benson maintains his innocence. But regardless of whether he was in fact innocent or not, he should go to prison for being such a f---ing moron. Look, I know athletes are stupid, but sometimes you can’t help but laugh over just how stupid they actually are. In 2005, the Bears used the fourth overall pick to draft Benson and after a lengthy holdout, Benson signed a $35 million contract with a three million dollar signing bonus. Needless to say, Cedric Benson had/ still has more money than he knows what to do with so I am here to ask if someone could please explain to me why on earth Cedric Benson does not have a full time driver who waits on him hand and foot. Seriously, I really don’t have any qualms about Cedric going out and having a few pops. Hell, I really don’t care if he goes out like some college frat boy on a mission to drink himself goofy. Take a bloody driver. Just take a driver. He can afford a full time limo no problem. But maybe he’s a cheap son of a bitch and doesn’t want to spend money, but I’d be willing to bet you my life that I can go out right this moment and find some high school kid that would drive Ced and his boys around for free at night just so he could tell his boys that he hangs with Cedric. It would take me ten minutes, maybe less.
A wise man once said you can’t fix stupid. He was right. Any person that stupid is pretty much hopeless. I’m not kidding, there comes a point where you just have to say “this guy is totally hopeless.” Since it seems that a lot of these hopeless people also happen to be exceptional athletes. Thus I propose a simple solution to the problem. If I were an NFL general manager and I was thinking about taking a player with a history of drunk driving, I would offer, no, I would contractually demand that the player not drive past 7 and instead use a driver that I would pay for. If the player says he won’t comply, I’d tell him thanks and walk away.
I recognize that this is might possibly be illegal and might be struck down by the courts as completely illegal since it would be discriminating against the hopelessly stupid, but I would roll the dice because if you can succesfully coax an idiot to agree to constantly have something closely resembling a babysitter, then you can sign total morons who can score touchdowns without getting arrested on a bi-monthly basis. They don’t go to prison and get to keep their money, the team gets touchdowns. It’s a total win-win.
June 9, 2008: Of College Baseball
It is Sunday night. Game 2 of the NBA finals is being played as we speak. Am I watching? No. No I am not watching. Instead, I am sitting in the Reckling Park press box covering game two of the Rice-Texas A&M super regional. Of course, when I say covering, I use the term rather loosely. You see, while Rice does have one of the nicest press boxes you will ever see at a college baseball stadium (this is actually true and not just me being sarcastic), Reckling Park remains a college baseball stadium so even the best press box still only has room for a handful of people, namely real media with deadlines, the rest of us have been relegated to “overflow seating.” For me, that means sitting in the media hospitality area outside of the press box and luxury boxes with a host of other disgruntled media members watching the game on television. When I imagined how being a member of the press and covering a game would work (maybe I was naive to think that I would actually watch the event..). Making this particularly strange is that because I am watching the game on television, there is about a five second delay. So every time something happens, the crowd reacts to the play in real time, and then about five seconds later, we get to see what happened. This is generally pretty annoying, but I have parlayed it into twenty dollars by betting with my esteemed colleagues on what the crowds cheers are a reaction to (I make my money on Rice walks…). Anyway, I am generally pretty bitter that I am missing game two and I decided that I hate college baseball because of it. Since this is a totally irrational, I decided to do something of a cost benefit analysis to figure out if my hatred of college baseball is based on any sort of rational logic.
Cons
--PIIIING!!!! Unlike the pro game, college baseball players use aluminum bats. This sucks for a number of reasons. The most obvious is the painfully obnoxious sound that the bat makes on contact (so much for the “crack of the bat”). But beyond just being unpleasing to my ears, the metal bat influences virtually every single aspect of the game. Metal bats create cheap home runs and cheap hits. A good pitch in on the hands will break a wooden bat and create a weak grounder, but in the college game the bat won’t break and often what would have been a nubber to the third baseman turns into a bloop single. Along those same lines, would be weak fly balls often turn into home runs. Oh, and I almost left out that one of these days, a pitcher is going to be killed when he gets hit in the head with a line drive that comes smoking off of one of these metal tennis rackets that they hit with. I actually admire any pitcher willing to stand in the box and throw to a giant first baseman holding one of those sticks. I truly would be afraid to do it. I think that baseball should go back to wood bats regardless of level of play, but I understand why metal bats make sense from high school on down to tee ball (the kids are weaker, wood bats are often too heavy etc etc) but the arguments proponents of aluminum pose are not applicable to the college game any longer (if they ever were at all). Today’s college athletes are big and strong and absolutely can handle the wood stick. I don’t really know how the NCAA justifies allowing aluminum to itself, but someone is actually going to get killed and that’s a shame because anyone with half a brain can see that a change is needed right now for safety reasons. So why no change? The NCAA claims that wood bats are too expensive, but I don’t buy it since most major division one programs are sponsored by a bat maker like TPX (which is owned by Louisville Slugger) or Easton and get their bats for free. Thus I think the reason for the change lies more in the fact that the makers of aluminum bats make big money selling the bats that kids see in the college world series to high school and little league players. The college world series is the only major showcase of aluminum bats, and as a result the sponsors are understandably reluctant to allow for a change.
--The games are too long. Yesterdays game lasted almost four hours, and today’s is moving at a snails pace. This is largely a product of the fact that too many runs get scored, and this is largely a result of metal bats. But too long is too long. Also, I would like the score lines to look like baseball scores instead of football scores. But maybe that’s just me.
Pros
--The season is relatively short. Actually, its pretty long (over 50 games) but all but the most die hard college baseball fans (if those exist..) don’t start paying attention until the conference tournaments. I personally glance at the conference tournament brackets to see how Texas and Rice are positioned, read the papers for scores during the regionals, and apparently I know cover the super regionals. Omaha is always fun, particularly if Rice and Texas are involved.
--ESPN has a great College World Series Jingle which they have stuck with for as long as I can remember (“back home in Omaha”).
--Comically bad coaching. Get this. In the bottom of the 4th inning, Texas A&M seized the lead and loaded the bases with two outs and their five hole hitter set to bat. Rather than let one of the best hitters on the team possibly bust the game wide open with a single (which would have scored two and given the Aggies a three run lead) or a double (which would probably have cleared the bases, giving them a four run lead) Aggie Coach Rob Childress called a triple steal, i.e. the Aggies tried to steal home. The play was surprisingly close, but the runner was thrown out at the plate ending the inning with the five hole hitter not having taken the bat off of his shoulder. Better yet, when I asked Childress about the call in the press conference, he actually defended the move as a “smart, aggressive baseball play.” I’m here to tell you that it was not a “smart baseball play” but rather one of the single stupidest moves I’ve ever seen. I practically expected Rice manager Wayne Graham to list Childress when he was naming players that came up big for his team.
--Rice is a power in college baseball. I like any sport where a school like Colgate (small, academic power traditionally awful at sports) can consistently compete for a national championship. Go Owls!
--College baseball is the only sport where players get drafted before the end of their season and the way that the major league baseball draft is set up, players can get drafted in multiple years if they don’t sign. I don’t know what intrigues me about this; I just think it’s interesting. 12 Rice players were selected in this year’s draft, and I suspect at least half of them will be back. But consider that right at the apex of the college baseball post season, these players find out where they were drafted. Can you imagine the various emotions that this must set off, with some knowing that they are about to make the big bucks while other teammates might be bitter because they didn’t get drafted at all.
Friday, June 13, 2008
2/24/08: Watch the NBA
First, the Rockets have won 12 games in a row running their overall record to 35-20. They are only three games back of the Western Conference leading Lakers. But despite all of the Rockets recent success, they remain in 7th place in the West. Yep, that was not a typo. The Rockets could legitimately miss the playoffs but they could just as easily be the number one seed. Denver and Golden State are currently tied for the eighth and final playoff spot (if the season ended today, Golden State would get the spot) and they are only five games back of the Lakers. A 50 win basketball team could actually not make the playoffs this season.
My other reason to watch more basketball is Kobe Bryant. I know he isn’t exactly the warmest guy on the planet, but if you don’t watch Kobe Bryant every time the Lakers play a national TV game (which will be a lot now that Los Angeles landed Pau Gasol), you are missing out on by far the best player since Jordan. If Kobe Bryant wins two more rings, Bryant will belong in the “greatest player of all time” debate. There is literally nothing he cannot do. I cannot think of anything that Kobe Bryant does not do exceptionally on a basketball court. There are a handful of guys in the league right now that can score like Jordan did, and Bryant is one of them, but what sets Kobe apart from the current pack of stars and what makes the Jordan comparison so interesting is the fact that Kobe plays defense like Jordan did. Kobe never lets up, ever. What separated Jordan from the other superstars of his day was his intensity. Jordan’s intensity never fluctuated on the offensive or defensive ends and game to game, no one worked harder. I think Kobe might have that same drive. Granted, he has been pretty immature in handling certain situations in the past, namely Shaq, but when I listen to him talk I’m struck by how Jordanesq he sounds and acts. Like Jordan, Bryant works harder than ANYONE. This past off-season Bryant made 1000 shots every day. I didn’t say he took 1000 shots, I said he made 1000. “You don’t practice taking shots, you practice making them” said Kobe.
The most telling evidence of Bryant’s transformation into the sort of modern Jordan might be the way his teammates talk about him. One of the things that shapes my memory of Jordan was the way that his teammates revered him. Whenever you heard a guy like Tony Kukok or Steve Kerr talk, they always talked about how hard Jordan works and how much he expected of them. If you watched the Bulls regularly, and most big NBA fans did when he played for them, you would occasionally see Jordan pull a teammate aside and sternly talk to them, almost like a father talking to a son. Even Pippen occasionally heard it from Jordan if he made a mistake. I feel like Kobe is starting to develop that same sort of presence. If you listen to any of the Lakers, you will hear about how hard he works and how much he pushes the team to succeed. And as Jordan once did, Kobe occasionally pulls a teammate aside to impart some of his paternal wisdom upon them.
So while you might be reluctant to embrace Bryant for a host of reasons, you might consider doing so because Bryant is a once in a generation talent.
Watch the NBA, watch the Rockets, and watch Kobe Bryant because it is turning out to be one hell of an interesting season.
2/15/08
The Rockets have won eight in a row but I can’t write about that because most of you won’t read about actual sports until the playoffs unless football is involved. Many of you might enjoy a column on Shaq desperately attempting to get into shape so that he can keep up with Steve Nash without keeling over and dying on the floor, but I think that Shaq is damaged goods and until I see the Daddy moving up and down the floor for the first time, I will assume that the Heat made out like bandits getting Marion for the overweight, oft injured diesel.
I have NHL observation regarding Richard Zednik’s injury. Seeing Zednik take a skate to the jugular is the most frightening injury that I have witnessed in my lifetime. The image of Zednik desperately skating over to the bench leaving a trail of blood behind him gives me Goosebumps. The Panthers deserve credit for keeping excellent doctors on sight because had the medical personnel not acted so well, Zednik may well be dead.
Beyond that, I really don’t have a lot of compelling stuff to write about. I could subject you to a pathetic, time filling ploy like Sportscenter’s “Greatest Highlight ever” segment, but I figure that you already have to see enough of that garbage on ESPN so I will just stop writing. I only wish to recommend that this might be a good time to read a book or take your wife out to dinner because during the month of February, compelling sport stories are on vacation.
2/4/08: Reaction to Super Bowl
1. The completion from Manning to David Tyree on the Giants last drive will be an iconic, signature play for years to come. I don’t hesitate one bit making the assertion that it belongs in the same conversation as Dwight Clarks catch or the immaculate reception. It was, quite simply, a breathtaking play to watch. I still have no idea how on earth Eli Manning got away from the entire Patriots defensive line but he did. The throw he made was actually ludicrous, and how David Tyree made that catch will boggle my mind for years to come. Rodney Harrison was literally on top of him. I don’t even know how to describe the magnitude of that play except to say that it gave me the chills when I saw it live and I didn’t really care who won the game. That being said, the play never should have happened because on that same drive Eli Manning made an awful through that Assante Samuel should have intercepted easily. I don’t know if people have dwelled enough on the magnitude of Samuel not converting that interception. It cost New England the game. If he converts that extremely routine interception, the Patriots win. But of course he didn’t and then Tyree made his miracle catch, and then finally Plexico caught his pass, and that was all she wrote for New England.
2. Now we have to listen to the Dolphins say “I told you so.” Great.
3. This is all I have for now, but did anyone see that Jeremy Shockey had like five beers in front of him when they showed him in the Press Box. I loved that. On one hand you had the repeated zooming in on Peyton Manning, who was standing in a corner of the press box by himself looking like a crazed lunatic watching the game, and then they pan to Shockey, who is wearing a white t-shirt and is drinking a beer. I cannot describe to you how funny I find this.4. Contextually, I think this game very well may have been the biggest upset of all time. Think about it, the Patriots were poised to become they greatest team of all time. Tom Brady just had the greatest individual season by a quarterback ever. The Pats were a double digit favorite and the Giants beat them in the Super Bowl. I recognize that there may have been more unlikely upsets, but given the historical implications that the game had for the Patriots, I can’t imagine an upset that was more significant.
1/21/08: I was Wrong About Eli Manning
1/8/08 in favor of a BCS title game
Here is what I do care about though. I care that college football deprives the sport of any sort of true closure at the end of most years by simply refusing to allow championship caliber contenders to play it out on the field. It infuriates me that I have to sit here and make a cast that LSU may or may not have been the best team in the country this past season, it is absolutely insane. The beauty of sport lies in the absolutes. In a world of gray outcomes, sport provides people with black and white results. Teams go out and they play games and when the game ends, one team wins and one team loses.. Sport represents the purest meritocracy we have in America because in sports you are not supposed to be able to hide. The best teams show they are the best teams by winning. Will someone please make an absolutely convincing argument that LSU could beat USC right now on a neutral field? The fact of the matter is, I can make legitimate argument that LSU, USC, and Georgia respectively is the best team in the country. I have one question. The season ended yesterday, so how the hell can that be?
I recognize that I’m preaching to the choir here, but I’m literally getting to the point where college football is so backward, so absolutely wrong that I’m considering just blowing it off. Now there is no chance that this is going to happen, because I love the game, but if I was smart I, I would because at the end of the day what do I get out in return for all of the hours I spend watching all the pre-game shows and all the games and spending all the money on all the gear. I don’t even get a national champion. I get nothing. I get speculation, I get confusion. I get BS. The Pac 10 and the Big 10 need to get their you know what together and recognize for the good of the bloody sport and for the sake of my sanity that a playoff needs to happen. The Pac 10 screwed one of its own teams out of a possible national title this year by opposing any sort of a playoff vehemently. And the Big 10 might not have looked so crappy (3-5 in their bowl games) had they lobbied for an expansive playoff because Michigan might have made some noise with the kind of ball they were playing at the end of the year. There is no reasonable argument for not having a playoff. I challenge the NCAA to tell the athletic directors to shove it and give the fans (who are the lifeblood of the sport) what they want, what they demand, and what they deserve….a clear national champion.
